System dynamics approach in determining coal utilization scenario in Indonesia

Indonesia plays an important role in the global coal market. In 2018, ranked as 5th largest producer and 2nd exporter world. However, only 21% of production volume is utilized domestic future, Indonesia's expected to continue increase due growth demand for electricity generation. This research aims predict future support economic with less damage environment examine its contribution national primary energy mix a part policy. System dynamics model utilized, which simulates supply relation availability reserves, interaction between substitutes, growth, price commodities. Four scenarios are introduced analyze impact utilization economy environment, Business Usual (BaU), Economic Growth Priority (EGP), Policy Regulation (PR), Environmentally Oriented (EO) scenario. The results show that will future. EO scenario be best alternative policy because ability fulfill both low carbon intensity target. Furthermore, also able achieve government target 2030 33.5% coal, 19.4% oil, 7.8% gas, 39.3% renewable energy.